Uncertainty of Rainfall Amount and River Discharge in Mountainous Catchments Associated with Spatial Distribution of Rainfall Observation and Meteorological Prediction

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  • 降雨観測の空間分布と気象予測に起因する山地流域における降雨量と河川流量の不確実性
  • コウウ カンソク ノ クウカン ブンプ ト キショウ ヨソク ニ キイン スル サンチ リュウイキ ニ オケル コウウリョウ ト カセン リュウリョウ ノ フカクジツセイ

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Abstract

 Four sequential typhoons caused severe floods over many river basins in Hokkaido during the middle to latter half of August in 2016. This study investigated spatial and temporal rainfall distribution at a upper reach of Sorachi river basin where a flood occurred due to the typhoon 10th (Lionrock). Furthermore, Uncertainty of rainfall amount over 235 catchments in whole Japan was investigated. Eventually, uncertainty of river discharge associated with spatial distributions of rainfall observation and its of ensemble members from 2 days were quantified. As a result, its associated with spatial distributions of rainfall observation is larger than its of ensemble member.

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